Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 7W 2D 1L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 64% and Bayer Leverkusen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 73% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.46 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.277 / defence 1.100 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.597 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.289. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Borussia Dortmund games / 33 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Bayer Leverkusen 5.26. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.46 / Bayer Leverkusen 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.277 / def 1.100 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.597 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bayer Leverkusen xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
49%
2.04
32%
3.13
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.31
0.85
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.85 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 19W 4D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 14W 10D 9L from 33 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.85 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.00 PPG from 16 outings (10W 2D 4L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 5D 5L from 16 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 19W 4D 10L in their last 33 games (1.85 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.00 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Borussia Dortmund) and 38% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 44%; Bayer Leverkusen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 31% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 38% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.46 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.85 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.60 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 19%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 73%, Bayer Leverkusen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.85 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.