1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PreZero Arena plays host to 1899 Hoffenheim versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1899 Hoffenheim have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's home record at PreZero Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 70% versus VfL Wolfsburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 74% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.123 / defence 1.113 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.923 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.413. Data: 23 1899 Hoffenheim games / 23 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 30% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 42%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1899 Hoffenheim 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 30% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.123 / def 1.113 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.923 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 30% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.12x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.92x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.48
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.65
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.45 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 6D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (12W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.61 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 9D 2L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.27 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.73 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 54%, VfL Wolfsburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 36% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 46%; 1899 Hoffenheim have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 46% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent games and 36% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 30% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 42%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 74%, VfL Wolfsburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.