1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host VfB Stuttgart at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PreZero Arena, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.29. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.43 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 86% and VfB Stuttgart 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 71% | VfB Stuttgart 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.976 / defence 1.205 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.988 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.452. Data: 7 1899 Hoffenheim games / 7 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 45%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | VfB Stuttgart 2.22. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 67% | VfB Stuttgart 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 / VfB Stuttgart 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.976 / def 1.205 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.988 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
25%
4.07
30%
3.31
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.99
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
4%
22.99
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.73 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 2W 4D 1L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.00 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
6
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 67%, VfB Stuttgart at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 33% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 33%; 1899 Hoffenheim have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent games and 33% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 8, as 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 45%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 71%, VfB Stuttgart 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 86%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.