1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

1899 Hoffenheim are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

Despite the home advantage, SC Freiburg have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 SC Freiburg — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 62% | SC Freiburg 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.65 xG and SC Freiburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.397 / defence 0.866 | SC Freiburg attack 0.854 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack rating of 1.397 — their 2.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 55 games and SC Freiburg's last 55.

Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | SC Freiburg 12%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 | Draw 5.62 | SC Freiburg 8.60. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.65 / 1.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights