1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees FC Augsburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 4W 2D 4L at PreZero Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (1899 Hoffenheim) versus 1.20 (FC Augsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for FC Augsburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 60% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 70% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.82 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.198 / defence 1.107 | FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.568. Data: 37 1899 Hoffenheim games / 37 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 34%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.82 / FC Augsburg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.198 / def 1.107 | FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.64
FC Augsburg xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 42% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 2W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.20) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.13
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.46
1.64
FC Augsburg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.34
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.64 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 15W 7D 15L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 11W 8D 18L from 37 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.41 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.14 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 15W 7D 15L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.72 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1899 Hoffenheim
4
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 67%, FC Augsburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 50% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%; FC Augsburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 44% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1899 Hoffenheim edge out FC Augsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg 1-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.82 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 0.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 42% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 34%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 70%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.