SV Elversberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 0.33 PPG across their last 3 games: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the stronger side — 1.47 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 100% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 100% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.04 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.842 / defence 1.226 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.924 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.355. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 3 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 37.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.91 | Draw 3.91 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.05. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (SV Elversberg's last 3 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 100% (last 3 games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.04 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.842 / def 1.226 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.924 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Elversberg 0 - 5 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 26% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.92x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 3 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
26%
3.91
26%
3.91
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.53
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.53 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have SV Elversberg or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won SV Elversberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for SV Elversberg, 33% for Fortuna Düsseldorf — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SV Elversberg and 33% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67%; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SV Elversberg's games and 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SV Elversberg's matches and 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 0-5 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Elversberg 0-5 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.04 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.53 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 100%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Elversberg managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf scored 5 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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