SV Elversberg 2-5 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 53%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Elversberg welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, SV Elversberg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SV Elversberg have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended SV Elversberg 0–0 1. FC Magdeburg — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 61% and 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 67% | 1. FC Magdeburg 57%). Note also that 1. FC Magdeburg surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.169 / defence 1.213 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.470. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.346, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 51 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 51.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.97 | Draw 4.61 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.88. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (1.66 / 2.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.05 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.66 / 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.169 / def 1.213 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
2.40
1. FC Magdeburg xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg 2 - 5 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 25% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 51 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
25%
3.97
22%
4.61
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
4.05
2.40
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.96
Clean Sheet
9%
11.00
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
2%
43.72
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 2.40 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 20W 11D 20L from 51 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 17L across 51 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 11W 5D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 61%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 16W 18D 17L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.46 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 SV Elversberg.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SV Elversberg and 58% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 27% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SV Elversberg's games and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SV Elversberg's matches and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 73% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Elversberg 2-5 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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