SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-5 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.802 / defence 1.077 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.555. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 44 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.66 | Draw 4.18 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.60. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% and SV Darmstadt 98 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.802 / def 1.077 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 5 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.80) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 44 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.18
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.73
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 17W 12D 15L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 27L across 44 games — 0.61 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 6D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 6D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.09 scored and 2.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 12D 27L in their last 44 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.71 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 67% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 76% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 1-5 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-5 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 1.40, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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