SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.10 for Arminia Bielefeld. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Arminia Bielefeld in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 72% and Arminia Bielefeld 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% | Arminia Bielefeld 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.76 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / defence 1.278 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.686 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.278. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 13 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51% | Draw 26% | Arminia Bielefeld 23%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Arminia Bielefeld 4.35. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% | Arminia Bielefeld 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51% | Draw 26% | Arminia Bielefeld 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.76 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / def 1.278 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.686 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 51% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 2 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.69x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
4%
25.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.12 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 47 games, going 4W 16D 27L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 0.83 PPG from 47 outings (8W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 0.83 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 4W 10D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.58 points per game from 24 outings (3W 5D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.91 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 16D 27L in their last 47 games (0.60 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 8W 15D 24L in their last 47 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.92 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%, Arminia Bielefeld 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 42% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 46% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 42% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.76 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.69 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51% | Draw 26% | Arminia Bielefeld 23%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68%, Arminia Bielefeld 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.60 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.