SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-4 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.40 PPG versus 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.908 / defence 0.867 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.903 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.460. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 42 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 42.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.26 | Draw 3.34 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.908 / def 0.867 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.903 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
1. FC Nürnberg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.91x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 42 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.34
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.69
1.14
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.14 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 16W 12D 14L from 42 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 20L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.43 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 11W 6D 4L from their last 21 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across their last 21 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 8D 20L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.86 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
4
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 62% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 71% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-4 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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