SC Paderborn 07 2-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 45%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen meet at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen (all games): 4W 2D 1L across their last 7 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 0.71. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SV Wehen's away record over their last 3 away games: 2W 0D 1L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SV Wehen arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 3 away games) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SV Wehen in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 71% and SV Wehen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 71% | SV Wehen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and SV Wehen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.997 / defence 1.060 | SV Wehen attack 0.827 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.364. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 39 games and SV Wehen's last 5.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.22 | Draw 3.96 | SV Wehen 3.36. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 3 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 67% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 6 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.53 / SV Wehen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.997 / def 1.060 | SV Wehen attack 0.827 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SV Wehen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 6) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 45% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.83x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 39 games and SV Wehen's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.96
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.73
1.20
SV Wehen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.20 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across their last 3 home games, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.57 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Wehen in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Wehen away?
SV Wehen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 0.33 PPG; SV Wehen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Wehen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2024: SV Wehen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
SV Wehen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Paderborn 07, 67% for SV Wehen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SC Paderborn 07) and 67% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 33%; SC Paderborn 07 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 67% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 67% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SV Wehen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Wehen 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and SV Wehen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against SV Wehen attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 30%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 71%, SV Wehen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with SC Paderborn 07 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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