SC Paderborn 07 3-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 56% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.20 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.196 / defence 0.945 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.842 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.265. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 SC Paderborn 07 games / 25 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 65% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 65% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.20 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.196 / def 0.945 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.842 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 65% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.20x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.17
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.21
1.01
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
11%
9.06
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
56.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.01 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 16D 18L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 10W 18D 31L from 59 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 7D 21L from 29 away games — 0.34 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.03 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 69%.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 10W 18D 31L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.48 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.34 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 62%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for SC Paderborn 07 and 79% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 76% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.20 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 65% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.