SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV encounter.

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Analysis

Hamburger SV make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Current Form

SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Hamburger SV have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Hamburger SV away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Hamburger SV arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for Hamburger SV and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Hamburger SV — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 64% and Hamburger SV 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 73% | Hamburger SV 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.36 xG and Hamburger SV 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.976 / defence 1.107 | Hamburger SV attack 1.214 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.436. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack rating of 1.214, which lifts their away xG to 1.93. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 66 games and Hamburger SV's last 66.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 50%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.75 | Draw 4.38 | Hamburger SV 1.98. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 60% (last 10 away games).

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