SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Braunschweig at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.60 (Eintracht Braunschweig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 61% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 73% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / defence 1.100 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.381. Data: 59 SC Paderborn 07 games / 59 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.39 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / def 1.100 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 43% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.91x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.75
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.12 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 27W 13D 19L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 16W 12D 31L from 59 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (17W 3D 9L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 6D 19L from 29 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.10 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 19L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 55%, Eintracht Braunschweig 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Paderborn 07 and 62% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 73%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.