SC Paderborn 07 0-0 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden meet at Benteler-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Benteler-Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
Dynamo Dresden have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Dresden's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.10 for Dynamo Dresden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dynamo Dresden — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 76% versus Dynamo Dresden 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 67% | Dynamo Dresden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.44 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.969 / defence 1.246 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.532 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.515. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 SC Paderborn 07 games / 21 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Dresden 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Dynamo Dresden 4.17. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Dynamo Dresden 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Dresden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.44 / Dynamo Dresden 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.969 / def 1.246 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.532 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dynamo Dresden xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 0 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 45% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Dresden 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.97x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.53x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.28
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.44
1.00
Dynamo Dresden xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.00 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 8W 7D 6L from 21 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 11L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.14 for Dynamo Dresden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 2W 3D 6L from 11 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.48 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo Dresden's season.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.05 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 0.82 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 82%, Dynamo Dresden 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SC Paderborn 07 and 64% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 46% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 64% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Paderborn 07's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden finished level at 0-0 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.44 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.00 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dynamo Dresden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.53 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Dresden 24%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, Dynamo Dresden 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.48 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.