SC Paderborn 07 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Magdeburg.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.70 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–1 1. FC Magdeburg — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 61% and 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while 1. FC Magdeburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.987 / defence 1.218 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.937 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.372. SC Paderborn 07's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 57 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 57.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 37%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.56 | Draw 4.25 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights