Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Karlsruher SC welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BBBank Wildpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC at BBBank Wildpark this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Karlsruher SC are significantly better at BBBank Wildpark than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortuna Düsseldorf — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karlsruher SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Karlsruher SC's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Karlsruher SC trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 63% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.096 / defence 1.228 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.348. Data: 54 Karlsruher SC games / 54 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.45. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.69 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.096 / def 1.228 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Karlsruher SC 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 45% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (9 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 4 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 5W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karlsruher SC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.86
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
5%
18.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.32 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 15D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (21W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.44 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 14W 5D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.41 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.81 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
5
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Karlsruher SC at 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Karlsruher SC and 58% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karlsruher SC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Karlsruher SC's games and 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 21, as Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.10 / defence 1.23 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 70%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.