SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jahnstadion Regensburg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.38 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.711 / defence 1.014 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.812 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.278. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.38 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.711 / def 1.014 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.812 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 43% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.71) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.34
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.05 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 4W 14D 26L from 44 games, 0.59 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 5D 16L from 21 away games — 0.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.93 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 14D 26L in their last 44 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.29 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 81% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 29% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 81% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 11, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.38 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.