SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SSV Jahn Regensburg face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

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Analysis & Preview

SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 30 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 5 games, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%).

Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.808 / defence 1.008 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.037 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.229. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 3 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 34% | Draw 31% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.90 | Draw 3.21 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.91. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — SSV Jahn Regensburg 34% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% (last 5 games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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