SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome FC St. Pauli to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jahnstadion Regensburg. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC St. Pauli — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, FC St. Pauli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 48% versus FC St. Pauli 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | FC St. Pauli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.622 / defence 1.112 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.941 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.334. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.622 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 42 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | FC St. Pauli 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 / FC St. Pauli 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.622 / def 1.112 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.941 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC St. Pauli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 30% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.62x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.67
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.40
FC St. Pauli xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.40 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 12D 18L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (18W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.79 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 67%.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 18W 13D 11L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.29 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%, FC St. Pauli 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 62% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 29% of games; FC St. Pauli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 71% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.62 / defence 1.11 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, FC St. Pauli 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.