Holstein Kiel 3-2 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Wehen make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Holstein Kiel (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Wehen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Wehen have posted 4W 0D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.40 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 69% versus SV Wehen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 62% | SV Wehen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.59 xG and SV Wehen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.022 / defence 1.218 | SV Wehen attack 0.833 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.408. Data: 48 Holstein Kiel games / 14 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 33%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | SV Wehen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 80% | SV Wehen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.59 / SV Wehen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.022 / def 1.218 | SV Wehen attack 0.833 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SV Wehen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen?
Holstein Kiel 3 - 2 SV Wehen.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 40% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.02) and SV Wehen's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.83x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.02
1.43
SV Wehen xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.43 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 2D 5L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.69 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.81 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded. Holstein Kiel's scoring rate against SV Wehen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SV Wehen away?
SV Wehen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.25 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 2, SV Wehen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when SV Wehen 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Holstein Kiel, 50% for SV Wehen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Holstein Kiel and 50% for SV Wehen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SV Wehen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Holstein Kiel's games and 50% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of SV Wehen's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SV Wehen tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SV Wehen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SV Wehen 3-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.59 xG and SV Wehen 1.43 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against SV Wehen attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 40% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 33%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 62%, SV Wehen 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.81 PPG, SV Wehen 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.