Hertha BSC 2-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face Fortuna Düsseldorf.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Fortuna Düsseldorf travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Hertha BSC at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fortuna Düsseldorf — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.60 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hertha BSC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Hertha BSC 0–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 65% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 63% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hertha BSC surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.103 / defence 0.929 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.419 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hertha BSC's projected output down. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack rating of 1.419, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 17 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 51.

Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 27% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.67 | Draw 4.25 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.03. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights