Hansa Rostock 1-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.11 PPG across 9 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 3L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 2.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.22 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.78 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.11 for Hansa Rostock, 0.78 for SV Sandhausen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, SV Sandhausen in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 44% versus SV Sandhausen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 56% | SV Sandhausen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.21 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.844 / defence 1.344 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.897 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.474. SV Sandhausen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Hansa Rostock games / 9 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 23% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 47%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | SV Sandhausen 2.13. SV Sandhausen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Sandhausen at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 75% | SV Sandhausen 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 23% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.21 / SV Sandhausen 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.844 / def 1.344 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.897 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.78
SV Sandhausen xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 23% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against SV Sandhausen's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.90x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
23%
4.41
30%
3.35
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.98
1.78
SV Sandhausen xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
4%
26.05
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.78 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 3W 1D 5L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 0.78 for SV Sandhausen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.78 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Sandhausen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 0.89 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SV Sandhausen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.75 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 1-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SV Sandhausen tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Hansa Rostock, 75% for SV Sandhausen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hansa Rostock and 100% for SV Sandhausen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hansa Rostock's games and 75% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 100% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen finished level at 1-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.21 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.78 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 23% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 47%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 56%, SV Sandhausen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.11 PPG, SV Sandhausen 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.