Hansa Rostock 1-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hansa Rostock welcome Hannover 96 to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hansa Rostock have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 33% versus Hannover 96 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 39% | Hannover 96 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.78 xG and Hannover 96 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 1.013 / defence 0.929 | Hannover 96 attack 1.110 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.298. Data: 36 Hansa Rostock games / 36 Hannover 96 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 29%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Hannover 96 3.45. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 40% | Hannover 96 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.78 / Hannover 96 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 1.013 / def 0.929 | Hannover 96 attack 1.110 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hannover 96 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 48% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Record (4 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.32
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.12
1.34
Hannover 96 xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
5%
20.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.34 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 14W 5D 17L from 36 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 14L across 36 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.31 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 7W 1D 10L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.50 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 67%.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 14W 5D 17L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.22 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2021, when Hansa Rostock won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 33%, Hannover 96 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hansa Rostock) and 56% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 67% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 56% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hannover 96 defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Hansa Rostock 1-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.78 xG and Hannover 96 1.34 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Hannover 96 attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 29%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 39%, Hannover 96 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.31 PPG, Hannover 96 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.