Hansa Rostock 2-3 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Hansa Rostock, 1.60 for Hamburger SV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hansa Rostock 0W, Hamburger SV 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hansa Rostock 54% and Hamburger SV 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 52% | Hamburger SV 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.84 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.716 / defence 0.980 | Hamburger SV attack 1.097 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.444. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Hansa Rostock games / 33 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 32% | Hamburger SV 51%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 5.88 | Draw 3.12 | Hamburger SV 1.96. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | Hamburger SV 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 32% | Hamburger SV 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.84 / Hamburger SV 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.716 / def 0.980 | Hamburger SV attack 1.097 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 3 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 17% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 51% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.10x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
17%
5.90
32%
3.09
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.40
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
5.90
17%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
27.86
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.55 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 10W 11D 12L from 33 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 6L across 33 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 6W 6D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 67%.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 10W 11D 12L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 15W 12D 6L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.06 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 62%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 44% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hansa Rostock's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 44% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Hansa Rostock 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hansa Rostock 2-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.84 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Hamburger SV attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 17% | Draw 32% | Hamburger SV 51%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 52%, Hamburger SV 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.