Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 37%, yet in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Fortuna Düsseldorf. A 2.80 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (3.00 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.03 xG and Werder Bremen 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.926 / away 1.284. Data: 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 1 Werder Bremen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% | Draw 36% | Werder Bremen 37%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Werder Bremen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% | Draw 36% | Werder Bremen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.03 / Werder Bremen 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.926 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 26% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (0.97) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.85x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
26%
3.77
36%
2.77
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.29
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
3.77
26%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.25 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fortuna Düsseldorf's scoring rate against Werder Bremen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 100%.
Defensively: Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Werder Bremen 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 100% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 0% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.03 xG and Werder Bremen 1.25 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Werder Bremen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% | Draw 36% | Werder Bremen 37%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 0%, Werder Bremen 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.