Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 1W 3D 2L from 6 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading

Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% and 1. FC Heidenheim 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.12 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.104 / defence 1.251 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.638 / defence 1.614. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.325. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.614 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 14 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 15%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Heidenheim 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33% BTTS from recent games.

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