Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1W 4D 4L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Nürnberg are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% and 1. FC Nürnberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% | 1. FC Nürnberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.783 / defence 1.135 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.907 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.350. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 19 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 78% | 1. FC Nürnberg 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.783 / def 1.135 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.907 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.39
1. FC Nürnberg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.78x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.16
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.60
1.39
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.40
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.39 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 5D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 1W 4D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.47 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 0.78 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 78%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 67% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.78 / defence 1.14 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 30% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%, 1. FC Nürnberg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.