FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Hansa Rostock 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 58% versus Hansa Rostock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 58% | Hansa Rostock 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.24 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.011 / defence 0.648 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.849 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.291. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.648 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 FC St. Pauli games / 55 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 21%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Hansa Rostock 4.76. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 40% | Hansa Rostock 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.24 / Hansa Rostock 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.011 / def 0.648 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.849 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hansa Rostock xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 49% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.01) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.36
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
1.95
0.71
Hansa Rostock xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.71 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 17D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (17W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.56 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 16W 9D 2L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.07 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hansa Rostock away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.11 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 52%, Hansa Rostock 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC St. Pauli) and 52% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 41% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 52% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.24 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.71 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 0.65 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 30% | Hansa Rostock 21%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 58%, Hansa Rostock 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.56 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.