FC St. Pauli 0-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 5W 4D 1L at Millerntor-Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Heidenheim are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 65% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 65% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.28 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.112 / defence 0.969 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.964 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.326. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 FC St. Pauli games / 43 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 36% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 34%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 70% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 36% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.28 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.112 / def 0.969 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.964 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 36% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.96x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.41
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.51
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.24 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 18W 13D 12L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 19W 11D 13L from 43 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.58 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 5D 10L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.14 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 8 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 5, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC St. Pauli) and 43% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 33% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 43% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.28 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 36% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 34%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.56 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.