FC Ingolstadt 04 0-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Audi-Sportpark plays host to FC Ingolstadt 04 versus Werder Bremen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 0.90 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 40% versus Werder Bremen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 60% | Werder Bremen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.93 xG and Werder Bremen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.767 / defence 1.094 | Werder Bremen attack 0.879 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.269. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 5 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 24% | Draw 37% | Werder Bremen 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Werder Bremen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 40% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 24% | Draw 37% | Werder Bremen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.93 / Werder Bremen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.767 / def 1.094 | Werder Bremen attack 0.879 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Werder Bremen xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 24% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.88x) against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
24%
4.13
37%
2.70
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
Werder Bremen xG
4.13
24%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.22 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 60%.
Defensively: FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Werder Bremen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have FC Ingolstadt 04 or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Werder Bremen 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 40%, Werder Bremen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 60% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 40%; FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 60% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 60% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Ingolstadt 04 0-3 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.93 xG and Werder Bremen 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 24% | Draw 37% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 60%, Werder Bremen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Ingolstadt 04 managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.