FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as FC Ingolstadt 04 welcome SV Sandhausen to Audi-Sportpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Audi-Sportpark this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Sandhausen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SV Sandhausen — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, SV Sandhausen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with FC Ingolstadt 04 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SV Sandhausen in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 48% versus SV Sandhausen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 67% | SV Sandhausen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.764 / defence 1.225 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.895 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.505. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 21 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 21% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | SV Sandhausen 2.00. SV Sandhausen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 50% | SV Sandhausen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 21% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 / SV Sandhausen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.764 / def 1.225 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.895 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.65
SV Sandhausen xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 0 SV Sandhausen.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 21% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 1W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.76) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
21%
4.67
29%
3.50
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.67
1.65
SV Sandhausen xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
4%
24.31
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.65 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Ingolstadt 04's recent record stands at 3W 4D 14L from 21 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 10L across 21 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Sandhausen by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Ingolstadt 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Ingolstadt 04 have managed 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Sandhausen's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Sandhausen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 3W 4D 14L in their last 21 games (0.62 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SV Sandhausen's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.60 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 50%, SV Sandhausen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 60% for SV Sandhausen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 70% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 60% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Ingolstadt 04's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Sandhausen finished level at 0-0 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.65 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SV Sandhausen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 21% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 50%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 67%, SV Sandhausen 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Sandhausen arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.