FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as FC Ingolstadt 04 take on 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Audi-Sportpark plays host to FC Ingolstadt 04 versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Ingolstadt 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Heidenheim are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — FC Ingolstadt 04 have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, 1. FC Heidenheim in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.177. Data: 1 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 1 1. FC Heidenheim games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 28% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Heidenheim 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 28% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Heidenheim 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
1. FC Heidenheim xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 28% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.98) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.85x) against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
37%
2.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
1. FC Heidenheim xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.15 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Ingolstadt 04's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Ingolstadt 04 heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Ingolstadt 04 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 0%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have FC Ingolstadt 04 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 0% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent games and 0% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 28% | Draw 37% | 1. FC Heidenheim 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 100%, 1. FC Heidenheim 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Ingolstadt 04 scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.