1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.75 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.825 / defence 1.004 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.052 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.282. Data: 2 1. FC Heidenheim games / 2 Hansa Rostock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 17% | Draw 36% | Hansa Rostock 47%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.88 | Draw 2.78 | Hansa Rostock 2.13. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 17% | Draw 36% | Hansa Rostock 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.75 / Hansa Rostock 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.825 / def 1.004 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.052 / def 1.022 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Hansa Rostock xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 17% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 47% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.82x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
17%
5.88
36%
2.82
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.11
1.35
Hansa Rostock xG
5.88
17%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.35 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Hansa Rostock's attacking output running into 1. FC Heidenheim's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Hansa Rostock in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 100% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 3, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.75 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 17% | Draw 36% | Hansa Rostock 47%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 50%, Hansa Rostock 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hansa Rostock managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.