Erzgebirge AUE 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE host Hamburger SV at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 0W 3D 5L from 8 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.38 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE at Erzgebirgsstadion this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 3W 4D 1L from 8 outings — 1.62 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.62 PPG return is 1.24 points per game ahead of Erzgebirge AUE's 0.38 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Erzgebirge AUE 50% and Hamburger SV 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Hamburger SV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 0.75 xG and Hamburger SV 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.703 / defence 1.331 | Hamburger SV attack 0.952 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.461. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Erzgebirge AUE games / 8 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 12% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 61%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 8.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Hamburger SV 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 12% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 0.75 / Hamburger SV 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.703 / def 1.331 | Hamburger SV attack 0.952 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Hamburger SV xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV?
Erzgebirge AUE 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 12% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Erzgebirge AUE's attack rating (0.70) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
12%
8.12
26%
3.78
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.60
1.85
Hamburger SV xG
8.12
12%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
2%
51.77
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.85 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Erzgebirge AUE have picked up 0.38 PPG on a 0W 3D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 75%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.25 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Hamburger SV 4-0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 50%, Hamburger SV 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 50% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV in 50%; Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 50% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent games and 50% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 9, as Erzgebirge AUE and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 0.75 xG and Hamburger SV 1.85 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.70 / defence 1.33 against Hamburger SV attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 12% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 61%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 50%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.