Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Eintracht Braunschweig take on 1. FC Köln.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

1. FC Köln make the trip to Eintracht-Stadion to face Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

1. FC Köln's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

1. FC Köln's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. 1. FC Köln are 1.40 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 0–5 1. FC Köln — a 1. FC Köln win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 45% versus 1. FC Köln 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | 1. FC Köln 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eintracht Braunschweig surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while 1. FC Köln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 0.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / defence 0.817 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.752 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.502. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 53 games and 1. FC Köln's last 19.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 33%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.99 | Draw 2.93 | 1. FC Köln 3.08. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights