Dynamo Dresden 0-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Dresden at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion plays host to Dynamo Dresden versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Dresden have collected 2.50 PPG across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dynamo Dresden have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 2W 2D 0L across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Dynamo Dresden's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Dynamo Dresden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo Dresden 50% and SC Paderborn 07 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 50% | SC Paderborn 07 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.32 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 1.120 / defence 0.898 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.043 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.312. Data: 4 Dynamo Dresden games / 4 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 35% | Draw 34% | SC Paderborn 07 31%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | SC Paderborn 07 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Dresden as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Dresden 50% | SC Paderborn 07 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 35% | Draw 34% | SC Paderborn 07 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.32 / SC Paderborn 07 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 1.120 / def 0.898 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.043 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07?
Dynamo Dresden 0 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 35% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dynamo Dresden's attack rating (1.12) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.04x) against Dynamo Dresden's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
35%
2.86
34%
2.92
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.55
1.23
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.23 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Dynamo Dresden have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dynamo Dresden are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Paderborn 07.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Dynamo Dresden's scoring rate against SC Paderborn 07's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 75%.
Defensively: Dynamo Dresden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Dynamo Dresden or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Dresden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Dresden have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dynamo Dresden
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Dresden 50%, SC Paderborn 07 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Dynamo Dresden and 75% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dynamo Dresden's games and 75% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dynamo Dresden's matches and 75% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Dynamo Dresden and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dynamo Dresden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Dynamo Dresden 0-3 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.32 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 35% | Draw 34% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 50%, SC Paderborn 07 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Dresden arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with SC Paderborn 07 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo Dresden managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.