Dynamo Dresden 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Dynamo Dresden take on Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Dresden host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Dresden stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Dresden have posted 3W 0D 3L at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Dynamo Dresden are significantly better at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 1D 3L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Dynamo Dresden in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Dresden 31% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 77%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.18 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.840 / defence 0.976 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.755 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.348. Data: 13 Dynamo Dresden games / 13 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 36% | Draw 37% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Dresden 0% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 36% | Draw 37% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.18 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.840 / def 0.976 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.755 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Dynamo Dresden 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 36% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Dresden's attack at 0.84x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Dynamo Dresden's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.77
37%
2.69
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.17
0.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 0.99 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Dresden's recent record stands at 4W 1D 8L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 5L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dynamo Dresden on 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dynamo Dresden have managed 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Dynamo Dresden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 77%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Dynamo Dresden's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dynamo Dresden's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dynamo Dresden
1
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Dynamo Dresden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dynamo Dresden 0% BTTS, Fortuna Düsseldorf 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo Dresden) and 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo Dresden's recent games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Dresden and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Dresden edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.18 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.99 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 36% | Draw 37% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dynamo Dresden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo Dresden 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo Dresden win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.