1. FC Nürnberg 1-3 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face SV Elversberg.

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Fixture Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg welcome SV Elversberg to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

SV Elversberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SV Elversberg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 1–2 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 58% versus SV Elversberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 65% | SV Elversberg 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Nürnberg surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SV Elversberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and SV Elversberg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.084 / defence 1.103 | SV Elversberg attack 0.984 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.330. SV Elversberg bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output down. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 65 games and SV Elversberg's last 65.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.95 | Draw 3.41 | SV Elversberg 2.21. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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