1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Eintracht Braunschweig at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, 1. FC Nürnberg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, Eintracht Braunschweig 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 2–4 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 30% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.776 / defence 0.829 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.920 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.251. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 1. FC Nürnberg games / 23 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.17. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.776 / def 0.829 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.920 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 50% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.78x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.86
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.95 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 4D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.09 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 5W 1D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.26 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.45 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.64 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 27%, Eintracht Braunschweig 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 64% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 73% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.78 / defence 0.83 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.92 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 44%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.09 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.