1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Avnet Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 0W 8D 2L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Paderborn 07 in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 0–0 SC Paderborn 07 — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 59% and SC Paderborn 07 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 57% | SC Paderborn 07 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.776 / defence 1.110 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.547. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 49 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 49.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 21% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 4.72 | Draw 3.73 | SC Paderborn 07 1.92. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 0.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 90% (last 10 away games).

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