1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Energie Cottbus travel to Avnet-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 1D 5L at Avnet-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Energie Cottbus trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 50% and Energie Cottbus 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 75% | Energie Cottbus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 2.39 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.926 / defence 1.135 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.000 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. Energie Cottbus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 1. FC Magdeburg games / 4 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Draw 19% | Energie Cottbus 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00 | Draw 5.26 | Energie Cottbus 3.23. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.25 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Energie Cottbus 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Draw 19% | Energie Cottbus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 2.39 / Energie Cottbus 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.926 / def 1.135 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.000 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Energie Cottbus xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 50% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 31% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Energie Cottbus's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
50%
2.00
19%
5.14
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
4.25
1.87
Energie Cottbus xG
2.00
50%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.30
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
9%
10.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
3%
35.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.87 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Energie Cottbus sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Energie Cottbus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 75%.
Defensively: 1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or Energie Cottbus been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Energie Cottbus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, Energie Cottbus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Energie Cottbus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 75% of Energie Cottbus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.