1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-3 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 1L across 7 games at Fritz-Walter-Stadion this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Kaiserslautern — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 69% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 8%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 54% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.74 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.056 / defence 1.321 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.668 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.290. Data: 11 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 45 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.17. 1. FC Kaiserslautern hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 71% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.74 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.056 / def 1.321 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.668 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 0 - 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 51% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack at 1.06x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.67x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.10
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.88
1.14
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.14 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record stands at 4W 8D 1L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.69 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 8%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 4W 8D 1L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.50 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.50 PPG.
Have 1. FC Kaiserslautern or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 0-3 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 83%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Kaiserslautern) and 50% (SSV Jahn Regensburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent matches and 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-3 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.74 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.06 / defence 1.32 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 24%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 54%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 8% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.