Toulouse 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Toulouse at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Quevilly at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Toulouse, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Quevilly in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Quevilly 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 62% | Quevilly 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.56 xG and Quevilly 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.852 / defence 0.966 | Quevilly attack 0.638 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 0.953. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.852 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Toulouse games / 32 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 79% | Draw 15% | Quevilly 6%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | Quevilly 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 60% | Quevilly 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 79% | Draw 15% | Quevilly 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 42% | xG Toulouse 2.56 / Quevilly 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.852 / def 0.966 | Quevilly attack 0.638 / def 1.413 | league avg home 0.978 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Quevilly xG
42%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Quevilly kick off?
Toulouse vs Quevilly kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Quevilly?
Toulouse 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Toulouse vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Quevilly part of?
Toulouse vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 79% chance of winning, Quevilly a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Toulouse and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Quevilly in?
Toulouse (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.85x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
79%
1.26
15%
6.76
6%
17.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.15
0.59
Quevilly xG
1.26
79%
Home win
6.76
15%
Draw
17.24
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
8%
12.94
Win to Nil
44%
2.26
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.59 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Toulouse have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 20W 9D 3L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Quevilly's form line: 8W 10D 14L from 32 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.31 PPG from 16 outings (11W 4D 1L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.81 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 20W 9D 3L in their last 32 games (2.16 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Quevilly away?
Toulouse's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.31 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Quevilly in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Quevilly have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Toulouse 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Quevilly?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 56%, Quevilly 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Toulouse) and 44% (Quevilly). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Toulouse's recent matches and 44% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Toulouse's matches and 44% of Quevilly's.
Do Toulouse and Quevilly tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.56 xG and Quevilly 0.59 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.85 / defence 0.97 against Quevilly attack 0.64 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 79% | Draw 15% | Quevilly 6%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 62%, Quevilly 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.