Toulouse 2-3 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 27 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 2.56 PPG across 9 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium de Toulouse.
Caen (all games): 3W 2D 4L across 9 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.22 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.34 in Toulouse's favour (2.56 vs 1.22) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 44% versus Caen 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Toulouse 44% | Caen 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.23 xG and Caen 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.336 / defence 1.079 | Caen attack 0.725 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 0.863 / away 1.035. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Toulouse games / 9 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 34% | Caen 22%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Caen 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 50% | Caen 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 34% | Caen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Toulouse 1.23 / Caen 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.336 / def 1.079 | Caen attack 0.725 / def 1.063 | league avg home 0.863 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Caen xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Caen kick off?
Toulouse vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Caen?
Toulouse 2 - 3 Caen.
Where is Toulouse vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Caen part of?
Toulouse vs Caen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 44% chance of winning, Caen a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Toulouse and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Caen in?
Toulouse (all comps): 7W-2D-0L in 9 | 2.56 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Caen (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.34x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.72x) against Toulouse's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
44%
2.30
34%
2.91
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.04
0.81
Caen xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.81 for Caen, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse's recent record stands at 7W 2D 0L from 9 games, a 2.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 4L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Caen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.00 scored and 0.89 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Caen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Caen in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Caen in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 7W 2D 0L in their last 9 games (2.56 PPG), while Caen have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Caen away?
Toulouse's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.50 PPG; Caen away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Caen in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Toulouse
0
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Caen?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 0, Caen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Caen 4-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 50%, Caen 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Toulouse and 0% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Caen in 50%; Caen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Toulouse's recent matches and 25% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 0% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Caen tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Caen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Toulouse 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Toulouse 2-3 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.23 xG and Caen 0.81 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Caen outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.34 / defence 1.08 against Caen attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 44% | Draw 34% | Caen 22%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Caen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 44%, Caen 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Caen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.