Sochaux 1-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Sochaux take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Auguste-Bonal to face Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
Quevilly (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sochaux. A 1.20 PPG lead over Quevilly (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 25% versus Quevilly 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 25% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 0.84 xG and Quevilly 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.831 / defence 0.801 | Quevilly attack 0.883 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Data: 12 Sochaux games / 12 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 34% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Quevilly 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 0% | Quevilly 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 34% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 31% | xG Sochaux 0.84 / Quevilly 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.831 / def 0.801 | Quevilly attack 0.883 / def 1.120 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Quevilly xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Quevilly kick off?
Sochaux vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Sochaux 1 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Sochaux vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Quevilly part of?
Sochaux vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 34% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Sochaux and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Quevilly in?
Sochaux (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.83x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.88x) against Sochaux's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
38%
2.65
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.59
0.75
Quevilly xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.75 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sochaux's recent record stands at 8W 2D 2L from 12 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Quevilly travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 games (2.17 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Quevilly away?
Sochaux's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.17 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Quevilly in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sochaux
3
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Quevilly have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Quevilly 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Quevilly?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sochaux) and 50% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sochaux and 33% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Sochaux have failed to score in 33% of games; Quevilly in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sochaux's recent matches and 50% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sochaux's recent games and 33% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Quevilly tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Quevilly share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 13, as Sochaux and Quevilly drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 0.84 xG and Quevilly 0.75 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Quevilly attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 34% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 25%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.