Sochaux 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
Niort have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Sochaux's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sochaux 30% | Niort 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 30% | Niort 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.01 xG and Niort 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.858 / defence 0.824 | Niort attack 0.681 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Sochaux games / 10 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 39% | Niort 19%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Niort 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Niort's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 0% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 42% | Draw 39% | Niort 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Sochaux 1.01 / Niort 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.858 / def 0.824 | Niort attack 0.681 / def 1.366 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Niort xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Niort kick off?
Sochaux vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Niort?
Sochaux 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Sochaux vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Niort part of?
Sochaux vs Niort is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 42% chance of winning, Niort a 19% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Sochaux and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Niort in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Niort (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.86) and Niort's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.68x) against Sochaux's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.7%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
42%
2.36
39%
2.57
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.61
0.60
Niort xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.60 for Niort, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Sochaux have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Niort have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Niort's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Niort in 30%.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Niort in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Niort in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Niort have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Niort away?
Sochaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Niort away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Niort in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Niort 0-3 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Niort?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sochaux) and 40% (Niort) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sochaux and 60% for Niort.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Niort in 40%; Sochaux have failed to score in 40% of games; Niort in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sochaux's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sochaux's recent games and 60% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Niort tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Niort in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.01 xG and Niort 0.60 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Niort attack 0.68 / defence 1.37, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 42% | Draw 39% | Niort 19%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 30%, Niort 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.