Saint Etienne 2-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Saint Etienne. A 0.90 PPG lead over PAU (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Saint Etienne 0W, PAU 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
PAU — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 64% versus PAU 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | PAU 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.26 xG and PAU 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.146 / defence 1.326 | PAU attack 0.936 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.005. Data: 24 Saint Etienne games / 62 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 30% | PAU 35%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | PAU 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | PAU 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 30% | PAU 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Saint Etienne 1.26 / PAU 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.146 / def 1.326 | PAU attack 0.936 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAU xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs PAU kick off?
Saint Etienne vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Saint Etienne 2 - 0 PAU.
Where is Saint Etienne vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs PAU part of?
Saint Etienne vs PAU is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Saint Etienne and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. PAU (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.15) and PAU's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.94x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.35
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
PAU xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.25 for PAU, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 17D 30L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.23 PPG from 62 outings (20W 16D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.23 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 9W 9D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (7W 9D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 15W 17D 30L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 16D 26L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or PAU away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.16 PPG; PAU away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 6-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 64%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Saint Etienne) and 39% (PAU).
On the defensive side: PAU in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Saint Etienne's games and 52% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 39% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and PAU tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAU in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat PAU 2-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.26 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAU landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 1.33 against PAU attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 30% | PAU 35%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, PAU 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG, PAU 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.