Saint Etienne vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Saint Etienne (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Saint Etienne face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Saint Etienne. A 0.70 PPG lead over PAU (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Saint Etienne are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
PAU — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 45% versus PAU 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | PAU 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.07 xG and PAU 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.530 / defence 0.793 | PAU attack 1.061 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.530 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Saint Etienne games / 38 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 59% | Draw 23% | PAU 17%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 30% | PAU 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 59% | Draw 23% | PAU 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 2.07 / PAU 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.530 / def 0.793 | PAU attack 1.061 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.05
PAU xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs PAU kick off?
Saint Etienne vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs PAU part of?
Saint Etienne vs PAU is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 59% chance of winning, PAU a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Record (6 meetings): Saint Etienne 4W | Draws 1 | PAU 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.53) and PAU's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.06x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.29
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.12
1.05
PAU xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
45.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.05 for PAU, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 7D 11L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (13W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of PAU — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 12W 3D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 20W 7D 11L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while PAU have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or PAU away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.05 PPG; PAU away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, PAU in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 6-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 42%, PAU 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Saint Etienne and 63% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; PAU in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 53% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Saint Etienne's matches and 63% of PAU's.
Do Saint Etienne and PAU tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PAU in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.