Saint Etienne 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Saint Etienne. A 0.70 PPG lead over PAU (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Saint Etienne 1W, PAU 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
PAU — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 55% versus PAU 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 47% | PAU 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.35 xG and PAU 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.849 / defence 0.713 | PAU attack 1.086 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.169. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Saint Etienne games / 51 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 4.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | PAU 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Saint Etienne 1.35 / PAU 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.849 / def 0.713 | PAU attack 1.086 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.91
PAU xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs PAU kick off?
Saint Etienne vs PAU kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Saint Etienne 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Saint Etienne vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs PAU part of?
Saint Etienne vs PAU is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 47% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | PAU 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.85) and PAU's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.09x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.60
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
PAU xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.91 for PAU, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 14D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (17W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.29 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 13W 5D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 15D 19L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or PAU away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.76 PPG; PAU away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 6-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 36%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games; PAU in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and PAU tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, PAU in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Saint Etienne 1-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.35 xG and PAU 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 0.71 against PAU attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 47%, PAU 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.57 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.